A flood model was developed for the Emerald area as part of the Central Highlands Floodplain Management Study (completed by KBR, 2014 and independently reviewed by GHD).
The model is a tool to help assess a range of flood mitigation strategies for Emerald and was calibrated using surveyed flood heights post the 2010/11 event.
The two animations illustrate the possible effects of a defined flood event on the township of Emerald:
- Without the proposed levees (no flood mitigation in place)
- With the levees as a flood mitigation solution.
The defined flood event was adopted by CHRC in June 2014 as part of their current planning scheme. It is a scenario that accounts for future changes to rainfall intensities and climate as forecast by scientists.
The event is a 1 in 100 year average recurrence interval in the year 2100. In other words, it has a 1% chance of occurring in the year 2100.
Currently, it is a 1 in 200 year average recurrence interval in the year 2015 and has a 0.5% chance of occurring now.
The 2010/11 flood event is close to a 1 in 100 average recurrence interval now, but as climate change progresses it is forecast to become a 1 in 60 year interval in the year 2100.
Animation 1: Defined Flood Event No Flood Mitigation - Current Situation
This animation depicts flood inundation extent and depths for the event unmitigated.
Animation 2: Defined Flood Event With Proposed Levees in Place
This animation depicts flood inundation and depths when the proposed Emerald flood levee (red lines (AECOM recommended alignment) and river improvement activities/excavations are completed.
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